The past few years have been a whirlwind for the classic car market, with unprecedented shifts in value and buyer behavior. Now, according to John Mayhead, UK Editor of the Hagerty Price Guide, there are signs that the market may have finally reached a plateau after the volatility sparked by the Covid-19 pandemic.
In the wake of the pandemic, Hagerty’s six UK indices showed a remarkable spike in values as classic car enthusiasts flooded the market, eager to acquire their dream vehicles. Supply struggled to meet this surge in demand, driving prices higher and higher. Sellers capitalised on this heightened interest, raising asking prices, and for a time, buyers were willing to meet these inflated figures.
However, as lockdowns became a distant memory and working-from-home trends began to subside, the classic car market experienced a shift. Rising interest rates, an increasing cost of living, and political uncertainty—driven by upcoming elections in both the UK and US—prompted consumers to be more cautious with their spending. Many of those who had purchased classic cars during the pandemic to “scratch the itch” began putting their vehicles back on the market.
By the summer of 2023, the impact was clear. Hagerty’s data revealed that sale rates were falling, both through private dealers and at auctions. Alongside this decline in sales, values also began to drop. Over the year leading up to September 2024, 40 percent of the models tracked by the UK Hagerty Price Guide experienced a decrease in value, with the US market seeing a similar 35 percent drop. These declines were unprecedented and reflected a cooling of the post-pandemic buying frenzy.
The Monterey auctions in August 2024, often viewed as a barometer for the US market, offered further evidence of a downturn. Combined sales results were nine percent lower than even Hagerty’s most pessimistic forecast for the event. Similarly, UK auctions displayed growing signs of a softened market. Analysis of Bonhams Goodwood Revival auctions revealed a drop in both sale prices and high bids for cars that failed to sell, compared to the previous year. Additionally, there was a 15 percent decrease in the number of cars consigned, coupled with an 11 percent drop in the sell-through rate. These trends suggest that both buyers and sellers have become more cautious, reflecting a broader awareness that the market may have reached its lowest point.
Despite these challenges, Mayhead’s analysis reveals that there is room for cautious optimism. Data from the last quarter, up to September 1st, 2024, shows that nearly 90 percent of UK Hagerty Price Guide values remained static, with five of the six indices staying within one percentage point of neutral. This suggests that the market may have begun to stabilise, though auction results, particularly from high-profile events like the Goodwood Revival, may not fully reflect this yet, given the longer consignment process for live auctions.
Looking ahead, the fall auction season in the US may provide further insights, but for the UK and Europe, only a few notable sales remain until early next year. The February auctions in Paris will likely be pivotal, as by then, political landscapes on both sides of the Atlantic will be clearer. A new US president, Labour’s fiscal plan in the UK, and France’s new government policies could all play a role in restoring confidence among classic car buyers.
While the market may have cooled from its post-Covid highs, Mayhead’s analysis indicates that stability is returning, offering hope to those invested in the future of classic cars. As the dust settles, the upcoming auctions will offer further clues as to whether the market has truly found its equilibrium.
